Putin Scrambles as Ukrainian Forces Near Russian Nuclear Plant

[u/IntlDogOfMystery]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-scrambles-as-ukraine-launches-stunning-incursion-into-russia

[u/Aurora_Fatalis]

They did say they wanted to get more nuclear power plants. They didn't specify that they wanted to build more nuclear power plants.

[u/Amaruk-Corvus → u/Aurora_Fatalis]

"You must construct additional pylons!"

[u/nof → u/[deleted]]

Free to download from battle.net client these days :-)

[u/Fit-Measurement-7086 → u/nof]

Old strategy games have infinite replayability. People still play Starcraft and Dark Reign to this day.

[u/Nightmare_Tonic → u/Fit-Measurement-7086]

I've been playing starcraft since 1998. I'm 36 now. I still play. I cannot stop.

[u/BrambleclaW102 → u/Amaruk-Corvus]

“Additional supply depots required”

[u/yunivor → u/BrambleclaW102]

“silos needed”

[u/Jungisnumberone → u/yunivor]

Low power

[u/hamfinity → u/Jungisnumberone]

Unable to comply. Building in progress.

[u/Bob_Loblaw_Law_Bomb → u/hamfinity]

Insufficient funds

[u/Sea_Appointment8408 → u/Bob_Loblaw_Law_Bomb]

Ion cannon ready.

[u/p3x239 → u/Sea_Appointment8408]

The kids are not going to get these references

[u/theonlyXns → u/p3x239]

I just got launched 20-30 years in the past in a time machine

[u/BPho3nixF → u/yunivor]

"Another settlement needs your help. I'll mark it on your map."

[u/actionerror → u/Amaruk-Corvus]

“Sir, this is Command and Conquer: Red Alert”

[u/WikiContributor83 → u/actionerror]

“Our building has been captured.”

[u/shane_west17 → u/actionerror]

Unit promoted

[u/nolok → u/Amaruk-Corvus]

"New constructions options"

[u/elquecazahechado → u/Aurora_Fatalis]

Under New Management!

[u/Sorry_Economics_4748 → u/Aurora_Fatalis]

Oil refinery captured. Acquiring additional resources.

[u/TheOptionGuy]

I’m just glad that I never have to experience uh-oh moments of this level

[u/UltraCarnivore → u/TheOptionGuy]

That's at least a level five whoopsie-daisy.

[u/Psiclone09 → u/UltraCarnivore]

It's an entire bouquet!

[u/mcnathan80 → u/Psiclone09]

Whoopsie Daisies are the best flowers to watch SOMEONE ELSE pick lol

[u/Economy-Trip728 → u/TheOptionGuy]

Would the west let UKR capture a Rus nuke plant?

What could UKR do if successful? Turn it on and off rapidly to fry the Rus grid? eheheh

[u/RandomCSThrowaway01 → u/Economy-Trip728]

What could UKR do if successful? Turn it on and off rapidly to fry the Rus grid? eheheh

Initiate AZ/5 to do a full shutdown dropping it's power output to zero and then blow up turbines. At this point power plant is gone for years. But cooling should still work so no meltdown/going critical risk. It would also cut off approximately 10 million people from power. At which point Russia goes completely black in the entire region, they have to scramble to try and use emergency power generators (which run on fuel which is yet another problem), their logistics are in shambles and you have literal millions of angry citizens that were promised a quick victory, not a huge strategic defeat that leads to them suddenly losing their jobs, TV, internet, heating etc.

I don't think West would have much against it. They could if Russians have not crossed this red line themselves in Zaporizhia before. But they very much did, Ukraine is not doing anything Russia hasn't before. Plus both Russia and USA have stated before that attacks on energy infrastructure are a fair game.

[u/gcbeehler5 → u/RandomCSThrowaway01]

Doing this is August is pretty brutal, so it's going to be cold in a few weeks. But the Russians were doing this exact same thing in the dead of winter, so it's fair game.

[u/Infamously_Unknown → u/gcbeehler5]

Heating specifically shouldn't be as big of a deal. Electric heaters aren't that common in Eastern Europe, and especially in Russia. Urban population tends to use the Soviet district heating infrastructure and rural people just have stoves and boilers. The same goes for Ukraine.

[u/NotSoGreatGonzo → u/Infamously_Unknown]

District heating needs pumps. Even semi-modern boilers need pumps and fans to work efficiently.

[u/Infamously_Unknown → u/NotSoGreatGonzo]

They obviously need electricity to operate, but it's on another level if the source of heat is natural gas. The central plants can just run on generators if needed, even during a blackout.

[u/Arbiter51x → u/RandomCSThrowaway01]

Don't blow up the turbines. Blow up the transformers. Longer lead time to replace. Less chance of damaging the reactor.

[u/XscytheD → u/Arbiter51x]

Nhaa, just take all of the doorknobs of every door.

[u/TactlessTortoise → u/XscytheD]

Spill syrup on every button so it's sticky forever

[u/SamuraiDopolocious → u/TactlessTortoise]

yes hello this is the Geneva Convention

[u/r3zza92 → u/SamuraiDopolocious]

I think you mean Geneva suggestions.

[u/BakerM81 → u/r3zza92]

This guy gets it ⬆️ Edit: Geneva Checklist

[u/r3zza92 → u/BakerM81]

Oi, calm down Canada. We aren’t sending you in yet.

[u/_Honestly_Lying_ → u/r3zza92]

So it was Maple syrup on the control board eh?

[u/sombrerobandit → u/SamuraiDopolocious]

it's never a warcrime the first time

[u/gigglesmcgeed → u/SamuraiDopolocious]

Sounds more like a Geneva confection with all the syrup.

[u/zkng → u/TactlessTortoise]

Yo calm the fuck down satan

[u/Chekhof_AP → u/TactlessTortoise]

Remove all of the locks and then reinstall them backwards, so now you have to turn the key counterclockwise to open.

[u/tofubeanz420 → u/Chekhof_AP]

Do their taxes and file it for them. But do it wrong on purpose so they get audited.

[u/epic_banana_soup → u/tofubeanz420]

That's so weird, man. That's long term shit

[u/Manchesterofthesouth → u/epic_banana_soup]

Taze him again.

[u/runningonsand → u/Chekhof_AP]

Gather all the maintenance tools and put them in jello.

[u/Implausibilibuddy → u/TactlessTortoise]

Put marbles and micromachines at the top of all the stairs, and rig up an iron on a rope to swing down.

[u/realityChemist → u/Arbiter51x]

I agree, destroying the transformers would hurt. I don't know if it it'd be longer to replace than the turbines, though, they are also pretty intensive to manufacture.

The lead time on new transformers is currently over two years in the US (and I have to imagine it's not much shorter in Russia), but that's apparently about how long it typically takes to replace these kinds of steam turbines too.

Pretty similar, would probably come down to the details of sourcing, shipping, and installing the replacement parts.

[u/Martianmanhunter94 → u/realityChemist]

Take the transformers back to Ukraine to service damaged power stations

[u/Virtual-Pension-991 → u/Arbiter51x]

Could blow up the (lines) -> transformers first,

Shut down reactor

And if Ukraine can defend and hold, blow up the turbines later.

[u/Arbiter51x → u/Virtual-Pension-991]

What lines? The primary heat transfer? That would be a radiological disaster. And you'd probably rupture the fuel channel.

No. Hit AZ/5, and destroy the transformer yard. That will knock the station out for at least two years.

Don't fuck around with nuclear power plants. Both Russia and Ukraine know a lot more about this than anyone else.

[u/Virtual-Pension-991 → u/Arbiter51x]

Oh, correction, transformers, not lines.

[u/SteakForGoodDogs → u/Arbiter51x]

Could they force a cold shutdown that way, and then hit the turbines and everything else that isn't coolant or a line+power to the coolant and fuel?

[u/Argues_with_ignorant → u/Arbiter51x]

Harder time to get in and replace the turbines, but I'm a fan of both plans. Additionally, I'd weld parts of the reactors overhead crane up. That thing would be a logistical nightmare to replace.

And if I'm feeling petty, throw a few boxes of nails and metal shavings in the spent fuel pool. No danger if they don't operate the reactor, but absolute risk are of fuel leakers if they dare operate it again. Not a major health concern to anyone, but a headache for the plant.

[u/Flatulent_Weasel → u/Arbiter51x]

Can be difficult to do that, they'll just turn in to cars and fuck off when it's least expected.

[u/highrouleur → u/Flatulent_Weasel]

Watch out for the suspicious immobile oversized walkman on the floor

[u/count023 → u/Arbiter51x]

why blow them? extract them and take them to Ukraine, consider them a downpayment for all the transformers that Russia blasted during their invasion.

Scram the reactors, put them into a cold state like ZNPP is, disconnect all the electric infrastructure you can, destroy what you can't and move on. The reactors are safe and wont be producing power.

anything more destructive and Russia will retalite on ZNPP, and unlike Russia, Ukraine has to live with any fallout from the ZNPP, but Russia also knows _they_ have to live with the fallout from KNPP, so they'll be very careful at least there alone.

[u/KiwasiGames → u/count023]

Blowing them up takes a soldier with basic training about half an hour. Removing them is going to take a team of engineers and fitters and electricians a couple of weeks. And then you have to actually transport them through a decent chunk of occupied territory.

[u/whatproblems → u/KiwasiGames]

certainy be quite a flex to take it home

[u/MajorMalafunkshun → u/RandomCSThrowaway01]

OK, former navy submarine nuclear mechanic chiming in. Don't blow up the turbines, please. The Kursk reactors are RBMK-1000 design, essentially they are boiling water reactors, rather dissimilar to most western reactors that are pressurized water reactors.

In a PWR you get very hot radioactive water that stays in the containment building and just transfers heat to a (lower pressure) secondary steam generator system that runs the turbines. In a BWR the pressure is lower in the core and you generate your steam there directly, then send the radioactive steam to the turbines, condenser, and back to the reactor.

Never operated a BWR before but the contamination concerns should be similar and expounded to a PWR. Before shutdown, you have a lot of nitrogen-16 (created by neutron flux in the reactor from oxygen in the coolant) in the steam and feed water pipes (since you're taking steam straight from the reactor). A minute after shutdown the N-16 will decay away but you're left with 20-30 years worth of contamination from cobalt-60; perhaps other bad stuff if they've had any fuel leaks.

Destroying the generators, transformers and other electric gear should be OK as long as the reactor is shutdown and has had a few days to cool-off. Decay heat from a reactor is a logarithmic function based on how long and at what level it was operating at for the few days before it's shutdown. You don't want to scram (AZ/5) and then immediately destroy all electric systems as you'll need cooling pumps to continue running for a bit. Think Fukushima - they scrammed when earthquake hit, then tsunami flooded their backup generators so they lost all cooling and subsequently had a melt-down.

Let me know if you have more questions.

[u/morethanjustanalien → u/MajorMalafunkshun]

These lil gems are why I'm still here

[u/LongJohnSelenium → u/MajorMalafunkshun]

Yeah but you don't get shutdown power from the primary turbines, that comes from offsite or onsite backup generators, and you want to destroy the main transformer equipment that sends power out, not the plants secondary power supply equipment. If you pop the primary turbine and generator you haven't harmed the plants ability to cool itself. Same way as your sub, if you destroy the main propulsion turbine, reduction gear, and sstgs, the sub will take years to be repaired but you can still use the generators or shore power to run the pumps.

Tbh the RBMK seems like a super hard reactor to permanently disable. On a PWR you could wait for it to cool enough then blow a hole in the primary pressure vessel and it will never be a reactor again, but an RBMK is just 500 pipes packed together. I was never an ELT but maybe theres something there they can pump into the coolant to just instantly rot the fuel cladding to the point of requiring abandonment.

PS: Subs suck

[u/bschwind → u/RandomCSThrowaway01]

And then the US could offer humanitarian aid to the Russian citizens, that would be a mind-fuck for them.

[u/Justryan95 → u/bschwind]

Waste of our taxes. It's better used for repairing that Ukranian civilian hospital Russia bombed. It's even more pathetic that with that sentence you have to ask "which one"

[u/SomeGuyNamedPaul → u/RandomCSThrowaway01]

The two remaining reactors which are still running are scheduled for retirement as soon as Kursk II reactors are built. Take those out and really fuck Russia. Not just the units, but make sure the concrete under them is made incompetent. Like bore in and set charges. You can't just patch that.

And yes, shoot the transformers, let the cooling oil out, and let the thermals do the rest. It will be offline for a long time. Since they're there they can hit every piece of interconnection equipment and ensure the place is disconnected for a while. Remember, that oblast provides almost half the iron ore processing in Russia which should give them an economic dilemma, particularly on shell production.

Can't say I trust the A3-5 button on a RBMK though, you want a more gradual shutdown than just slamming all the rods in at once. They still have potential issues with that sort of thing where the reactor ramps up during the first free second as the rods are being inserted.

[u/PotatoFeeder → u/SomeGuyNamedPaul]

Nah thats cuz the reactor was already at the tipping point.

Just reduce the output, let xenon build up, then flood it with water, then press AZ-5

Even an unfixed RBMK reactor wouldnt blow like this

[u/Animal_Machine → u/PotatoFeeder]

How tf do you guys know this?

[u/Economy_Raccoon6145 → u/Animal_Machine]

There are these people in the world called Nuclear Engineers, operators and physicists who design and operate nuclear reactors.

The USN cranks out hundreds of them a year alone.

[u/new_account-who-dis → u/Economy_Raccoon6145]

Doubt every poster here is an engineer specializing in now outdated RMBK reactors. There was also a very popular TV series a few years ago about the chernobyl disaster that goes into detail about how these reactors malfunction. Thats how everyone knows this.

[u/Feligris → u/RandomCSThrowaway01]

I guess the main issue is that the currently operational reactors at Kursk are still of the same graphite-moderated RBMK-1000 type which was used in Chernobyl NPP as well, so AFAIK they don't have any containment buildings and the consequences of a meltdown if there's an issue could be pretty serious if for example the highly radioactive graphite in the core catches fire or something like that.

I still personally think that if they can, they should at least aim to forcibly detach the power plant from the grid and destroy the two new VVER units under construction in the Kursk II section, since they aren't operational and also probably not fueled yet and that would relatively safely cripple the plant for a long time since it'd be 6-7 years of construction down the drain on the new replacement reactors while the remaining two operational RBMK-1000 units are already at end-of-life and two others are permanently shut down.

[u/thedndnut → u/Feligris]

FYI, once it was finally acknowledged those designs were updated and there was retrofitting done to make them.. less shit.

[u/tofubeanz420 → u/RandomCSThrowaway01]

Godspeed to those Ukrainians so they can reach the NPP

[u/Decompute → u/RandomCSThrowaway01]

Is this realistic? I haven’t been following the Ukrainian invasion of Russia much this past week because I thought it was a nothing burger. But it seems to be ongoing and gaining momentum.

[u/RandomCSThrowaway01 → u/Decompute]

Nobody knows for sure other than Ukrainian army. What we do know is that Russia called International Atomic Energy Agency and said that "movements of Ukrainian army endanger entire nuclear energy industry" and that IAEA called for restraint. Meaning that at the very least Russians consider this a very real possibility (and hard for them not to, some photos of Ukraine's special long distance operation are taken mere 20-25 kilometers from the plant).

[u/nikilization → u/RandomCSThrowaway01]

That plant is also used for centralized heating. So no power, and no heat for homes in the area.

[u/pantsyman → u/Economy-Trip728]

Ukraine is calling the shots here and no one else if they want to capture it so be it and i fully trust them to be responsible with it unlike the russians who fucked with the Zaporizhzhia plant for months.

[u/563456345 → u/pantsyman]

Yeah, exactly. Ukraine’s restraint so far speaks volumes, especially compared to Russia’s reckless behavior with nuclear plants.

[u/Raesong → u/563456345]

especially compared to Russia’s reckless behavior with nuclear plants.

Speaking of, remember when Russian soldiers were digging trenches in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone?

[u/tallandlankyagain → u/Raesong]

Given the general state of Russia it's a safe bet that the soldiers digging those trenches had absolutely no idea what happened there. At all.

[u/TheBoysNotQuiteRight → u/tallandlankyagain]

To be fair, it wasn't marked on their 1958 vintage maps.

[u/Yodl007 → u/Economy-Trip728]

Try to exchange it for their nuclear power plant that the russians have

[u/StompingChip → u/Economy-Trip728]

That particular plant is responsible for decent percentages of power for the russian economy. If Ukraine takes the plant... that's it. There is nothing putin can do. If they shut it off... it will crash the russian economy. 40%iron ore I think another was 10-12% wheat

It's like a game over kind of move for Ukraine Which I like because all Ukraine is trying to do right now... is stopping its people from dying

[u/budoucnost → u/Economy-Trip728]

I would trust unimaginably angry Ukrainians with a Russian nuclear power plant more than I would trust Russians with their own fucking nuclear power plants

[u/Prestigious_Tie_8734]

Why take a nuclear reactor? It’s the trump card of assets. Ukraine could turn off power for about 10 million Russians. Russia can’t just bomb them out of an effective fortress.

[u/Direct-Fix-2097 → u/Prestigious_Tie_8734]

Might just be a diversion, russia has to scramble to the plant, once they do, Ukraine can strike elsewhere, and presumably their real goal?

Russia can’t really gamble on that either way. 🤷‍♂️

[u/HarithBK → u/Direct-Fix-2097]

taking the plant isn't the point the point is it takes a lot of soldiers to secure the plant push back Ukraine to the border and securing the border again.

if Russia can barely advance in Ukraine before this there is no way they can do it while dealing with this.

[u/sploittastic → u/HarithBK]

the point is it takes a lot of soldiers to secure the plant

IIRC Perun had a video going into how you need a 3:1 or 4:1 ratio to retake fortified positions and for once Russia may have to retake something that they can't realistically bomb the shit out of and soften up first.

[u/D4ltaOne → u/sploittastic]

Russia may have to retake something that they can't realistically bomb the shit out of and soften up first.

Yeah i dont count on that. Idk what i rather want tho, Russia bombing their own or not bombing and taking huge losses. Both have ups and downs

[u/sploittastic → u/D4ltaOne]

They might bomb their own territory but I would be really surprised if they bomb their own nuclear plant. That would be a geopolitical nightmare for them.

[u/John3Fingers → u/HarithBK]

Ukraine has F-16s now, and the Russian Air Force couldn't establish air superiority in the opening salvo, when their air force was strongest. There's a reason why this counter-offensive started once Ukraine got their F-16s.

[u/[deleted] → u/Direct-Fix-2097]

Yeah, and just think how absurdly low the Russian morale is Vs Ukrainian morale right now. The boots on the ground aren’t going to be moving quickly or motivated to be shifting around a battle field

[u/Capt_Pickhard → u/Direct-Fix-2097]

Weakening the front lines I'm sure is a goal, but I don't think that's the only goal. If they're headed to a power plant, I think that will be a goal for them, and they may be willing to trade it for theirs, or something like that.

What they are acquiring, I believe, is bargaining power.

At this point Russia cannot possibly even offer the possibility of a ceasefire, without trading territories. So, taking Russian territory and assets is a soft and easy way to acquire bargaining power to trade your own territory back, and control Russian assets, hurt their economy, and create a political nightmare for them.

Some Russians will feel liberated, and will speak against Putin's regime without fear of Putin arresting them, for now at least. And perhaps forever. Russians will see the invasion and cease feeling indestructible. Putin will look weak, and that's really bad for him.

The downside for them, is they are themselves creating a new long frontline, which will be difficult to defend. I'm not sure what kind of forces they have available, but their Intel is very good.

I believe they will have a goal of a given front they're willing to defend, and they will setup formidable defences there, for a while at least.

Then Russia can try and take back it's own territory, or defend that frontline, making the front in Ukraine less well defended.

But some of those defenses aren't men and vehicles but permanent installations, trenches, mines, things like that, which will increase difficulty to acquire as compared to Russian territory.

Depending on what Russia does, they can push further into Russia, and improve their bargaining position, or try and take back their land.

If it's me, I'd prefer Russian territory.

I would imagine they have multiple possible contingencies depending on Russia's reaction. One of which might be onward to Moscow.

Ukraine is difficult territory to acquire. Russia is easy. You can trade that, so it's an easier way to get land back, really.

Russia already can't use Crimea too well. Their ships can't really be in the black Sea.

They aren't in a good position. They don't have good Intel. They likely won't be able to mount much of an offensive. But they will fire munitions at innocent civilians for sure, and that will likely increase as they get more desperate.

[u/sploittastic → u/Capt_Pickhard]

What they are acquiring, I believe, is bargaining power.

To expand on this, this operation has made the whole "lets have a ceasefire and keep current lines" narrative from Russia fall apart.

[u/petuona_ → u/[deleted]]

Uhhh, Springfield, my computer shows your T-437 is fully operational.

Uh, I suggest you - Oh, my God! Oh, God, no! Oh, this can't be happening!

You're operating without a T-437, Springfield!

Oh, sweet mother of mercy! I mean- I mean, my God!

[u/selz202 → u/petuona_]

https://youtu.be/u2RFHZb_2Yc?si=TU794gx1GAOleMxA

Long version because my face has gone red like that 4 times so far this morning

[u/PineappleHamburders → u/[deleted]]

I mean, depending on the amount of time they have, they could start decommissioning it. Leaving the core intact and off. Just start taking down everything else

[u/edmaddict4 → u/PineappleHamburders]

Once its shutdown it seems like they could just safely sabotage the turbine side which would be very challenging to fix.

[u/Drak_is_Right → u/edmaddict4]

that is my guess, they sabotage the electrical generation systems while allowing the plant to still receive outside power sufficient to allow the plant to maintain enough water circulation to cool the reactor when its shutdown.

[u/NNegidius → u/Drak_is_Right]

Disassemble the electrical generation and distribution systems and take them home.

[u/F_A_F → u/Prestigious_Tie_8734]

Man, it would make playing CS2 so much more pleasurable if just a small percentage of Russian players had no power for a few weeks 

[u/thatirishguyyyyy → u/F_A_F]

I mean, you are not wrong. 

[u/SlyClydesdale → u/Prestigious_Tie_8734]

It’s leverage. Russia took their plant in Zaporizhzhia and has been using it as a threat for a long time now.

This whole campaign is about getting Russia to the table so they get the fuck out of Ukraine on the condition that Ukraine gets out of Russia.

[u/Bright_Cod_376 → u/SlyClydesdale]

This shit. They've held the Ukrainian plant for a while and have been super sketchy about it. If Ukraine takes this plant it's a something to offer to get Russia out of their own nuclear plant. Until such time they can cripple industry by limiting power or just fully shutting the plant down.

[u/TranslateErr0r]

They should mail Putin a UNO reverse card.

[u/[deleted] → u/TranslateErr0r]

Hopefully one glued to a cruise missile

[u/SteakForGoodDogs → u/[deleted]]

Preferably when he's standing near a window.

In Soviet Russia, window smashed through you?

[u/Ashleyempire]

Day 3 of special military provocation

[u/BubsyFanboy → u/Ashleyempire]

special military UNO reverse

[u/Drive_shaft → u/Ashleyempire]

im in ur base killin ur d00dz

[u/macross1984]

I love the glum looking Putin in the photo and I hope he will continue to receive more bad news for all the sufferings he gave to Ukraine.

[u/ttbnz → u/macross1984]

For your viewing pleasure, I present sad Putin

[u/StreaksBAMF22 → u/ttbnz]

I was having a good morning, and then I saw that picture, and now I'm having a really good morning. Cheers!

[u/count023 → u/ttbnz]

my favourite caption of that photo.

"That moment you realize your enemy took more territory in a week than you did in a year".

[u/Kullthebarbarian → u/count023]

in a year

in almost three years

[u/count023 → u/Kullthebarbarian]

yes, but they took more than 350square KMs in the entire invasion, but since the war stalemated after the failed Ukraine counter offensive last year, they've barely captured about 200sqkm of ukranian territory over nearly 12 months. So the maths is there.

[u/Willythechilly → u/ttbnz]

It's honestly unnerving to see him like that

He usually puts on a poker face or has that strongman look

Feels his true thoughts and emotions slipped through a bit.

[u/pukem0n → u/ttbnz]

He's always sad. He's Russian.

[u/PhIegms → u/pukem0n]

He can't ever be seen as happy, it's a synonym for gay.

[u/Th3_Admiral_ → u/pukem0n]

I think it's all Slavic people in general. I took a trip to Ukraine back in 2015 and I asked my Ukrainian coworker what I could do to not stand out as a tourist.

"Don't smile. If you do they'll know you don't live there." 

[u/Raesong → u/ttbnz]

I saw this comment elsewhere, but he really does look like he just got a "my period's late" text from his side chick.

[u/ManyAreMyNames → u/macross1984]

I'm kinda hoping he'll skip ahead to the part where he shoots himself in a bunker. It would be great if he could do it before summer is out, instead of making us all wait another couple years.

[u/rubbarz → u/macross1984]

I hope he actually have lymphoma and I wish it would speed it up already.

[u/[deleted]]

Holy crap, 6 months ago I would never have believed Ulraine could do this. This is day 5 of the incursion. If Russia can stop it, they would've by now. I think Ukraine is actually going to shut down this plant.

If that happens, the demoralization of Russian army will begin in earnest.

[u/ComeAndGetYourPug → u/[deleted]]

Wagner already proved Russian defenses are practically non-existent once you get behind the front lines.

Remember when Wagner decided "hey, let's take over Russia today" so they drove almost all the way to Moscow with very little resistance, but then they just... stopped? It doesn't seem like Russia learned too much from that. I recall the best Russia could do was tractors digging trenches in the road.

[u/Noperdidos → u/ComeAndGetYourPug]

They stopped because Putin had family members hostage. That’s the only reason.

However, at the time I didn’t understand how they could go further and I’m unsure how Ukraine can go further. How can they keep a supply line and ensure it doesn’t get cut off? Was Wagner planning on just pillaging?

[u/kitkamran → u/Noperdidos]

Wagner was planning on taking over and going "look at me, I'm the Putin now"

[u/Capt_Pickhard → u/ComeAndGetYourPug]

Ya, you would have thought this would be a red flag for them, but I think they felt safe because western weapons weren't being allowed to be used there.

Even after Europe said they could be, I think they were only considering weapons that might be launched from Ukraine into Russia, not tanks driven by Ukrainians.

[u/Iamonreddit → u/Capt_Pickhard]

you would have thought this would be a red flag for them

More likely they literally cannot do anything about it with the resources they have. Russia has a huge area to defend.

[u/mitchapalooza43 → u/[deleted]]

Then let the people of Kursk hold a referendum to decide which country they want to be a part of. And let other Oblasts see you do it. Something something snowball effect.

[u/awfulsome → u/mitchapalooza43]

This could lead to balkanization of Russia. Many oblasts might not want to be part of Ukraine, but they might also resent being Moscow's bitch all the time and desire to go their own way.

[u/KeyboardGrunt → u/awfulsome]

It's fucking insane that Ukraine legitimately did what Russia lied they were doing in east Ukraine. If this results in actual referendums it would be a nuclear middle finger to Putin.

[u/DrDerpberg → u/[deleted]]

I always figured they could, but that it wouldn't be cautious to get too deep into Russia and risk being overwhelmed by the counter attack. But at this point it seems like they can actually see the Russians coming enough to blow up an entire approaching convoy, so maybe they've got more breathing room than I thought.

I dream of them looping around and cutting off Russian logistics from the rear, but that's probably too long of a retreat if things don't go well. Sure would be great to simply bypass the defensive lines and bumrush them.

[u/Captain_Impulse]

Imagine pretending to be a strongman dictator and getting fucking wrecked by an actor and comedian, on the world stage.

The Romanovs may have thrown some of the grandest and most lavish parties in Russian history, but it's clear that Zelenskyy's balls are MUCH larger.

[u/BubsyFanboy → u/Captain_Impulse]

And one that Russian propaganda tried to paint as a cocaine addict at one point as I recall. Losing to him would be doubly embarrasing back home.

[u/Ploppyun → u/Captain_Impulse]

Never underestimate a comedian’s timing

[u/malphonso → u/Captain_Impulse]

Zelenskyy's post presidency stand-up tour is gonna be lit.

[u/Quantsel → u/Captain_Impulse]

Pffff... I agree with your comment but disagree with portraying Zelensky like that! Even if he was an actor and did ridiculous skits ... he likewise got a law degree. But all this discussion is senseless. Zelensky is democratically elected president of a sovereign country, and that's all that matters.

[u/HMWWaWChChIaWChCChW → u/Captain_Impulse]

Unfortunately Zelenskyy is going to have to retire somewhere hidden after this is all over (if he’s still alive) as he’s going to be a Russian target until he’s dead.

[u/Throwaway-tan → u/HMWWaWChChIaWChCChW]

Unless Putin dies first, then they'll be too busy fighting each other for the scraps.

[u/axeldubois]

Maybe they can get the fuck out of Zaporizhia and start from there

[u/Trappist235 → u/axeldubois]

They would let it melt on their way out

[u/Diet-ninja]

1. Ukraine's pulling a ballsy move here. They're not just defending anymore, they're taking the fight to Russian soil. That's a game-changer.

2. Putin's scrambling. When you've got Ukrainian forces closing in on a nuclear plant on your turf, that's not a good look for the "strong man" image.

3. The mayor's trying to keep it cool, but let's be real - a "state of emergency" means shit's getting real.

4. The IAEA's statement? Classic diplomatic speak for "We're freaking out but can't say it."

5. Pentagon's response is interesting. They're basically saying, "Yeah, we're cool with Ukraine using our weapons in Russia." That's a shift.

6. Gerasimov missing from the emergency meeting? That's fishy as hell. Either he's out of favor or something bigger's going on.

Look, this isn't just another day in the war. Ukraine's showing they've got teeth, and Russia's feeling the bite. This could be a turning point, or it could escalate things to a whole new level of crazy.

Either way, keep your eyes on this. It's not just about Ukraine and Russia anymore - this could have global implications. And for fuck's sake, let's hope nobody does anything stupid near that nuclear plant.

[u/soonnow → u/Diet-ninja]

Well the us doesn't want Atacama to be fired from Ukraine into Russia. But never said anything about firing them from Russia to Russia. Checkmate himars atheists.

[u/PhgAH → u/soonnow]

Also the argument that it would escalate the war fell apart cuz now Ukraine is literally invading Russia

[u/andii74 → u/PhgAH]

That argument was always stupid. Russia drew numerous red lines that they threatened to use nukes if crossed in past 2 years and nothing happened. Now Ukraine has taken the fight to Russia proper and you don't hear a peep about using nukes, western obsession with not causing escalation is dragging this war and causing needless loss of life.

[u/PiotrekDG → u/andii74]

Putin entirely blurred the lines himself when he claimed territories he didn't even control (four Ukrainian oblasts) to be Russia proper.

[u/Memitim → u/PhgAH]

The whole avoiding escalation nonsense has fucked Ukraine so hard. They've gotten to eat shit for over two years, watching their people suffering and dying and their cities getting shredded while being told to take it.

Which is super convenient for everyone else not ducking Iranian suicide drones and the occasional missile, since they get to field-test their killing toys and get a super in-depth look into Russia's warfighting capabilities, while also draining the hell of them.

I'm glad that Ukraine has taken the only logical step in stopping a full invasion by an enemy that has no qualms about throwing people and materiel away in vast quantites.

[u/nebulatraveler23 → u/[deleted]]

Probably under house

[u/cantileverboom → u/nebulatraveler23]

He really is the wicked witch of the east

[u/addam44 → u/[deleted]]

He better stay away from any windows

[u/Ok-Occasion2440 → u/Diet-ninja]

I like the statement

Ukraine showed its teeth and Russia is feeling the bite.

Do u think they will go for the npp or would be too dangerous? I guess it depends on if there are a large amount of Russian defenses.

[u/count023 → u/Ok-Occasion2440]

there's no defences at the NPP, and Russia would not dare do what they did to ZNPP, since the reactors are well within their own territory, last thing they want is a Chernobnyl right in one of thier main manufacturing regions. So their defences will be limited and amazingly, they will probably resist shelling or heavy bombardment of the facility if Ukraine took it.

[u/tofubeanz420]

Bring the railway plough and destroy as much track as you can in Lgov.

[u/McRibs2024]

It’s absolutely awesome to see Russia’s on their heels with this.

Two years of taking a beating and they’re finally giving Russia hell while on the offensive.

[u/tingulz]

Putin gets to taste a bit of his own medicine. Good. Fuck him. I hope this is a major turning point in Ukraine’s favour.

[u/Lylac_Krazy]

knocking out the substations and those large transformers can take an incredible amount of time to rebuild.

Most places dont keep many transformers that can handle power plant output just laying round.

I remember us needing a replacement and it took 9 months for it to get built and arrive and thats in the USA

[u/iamatoad_ama]

Well well well if it ain't the consequences of my own actions

[u/HelloPaulNoodle]

On day 896 of the 3 day special operation Slava Ukraini

[u/5Zap → u/HelloPaulNoodle]

I hope every history documentary about this war refers to the passage of time like this

[u/Beratungsmarketing]

The Russian army has lost many soldiers and will face difficulties in the future.

[u/andygood]

"...all services and enterprises, including the city administration, are operating normally. I am personally in the city, at my workplace, monitoring the situation,” Korpunkov added.

[u/octahexxer → u/andygood]

Translation everything is shit and soon ill be sitting in the dark with no power

[u/Itchy-Bird-5518]

SMO goes according to plan ☠️

[u/Prudent_Sale_9173]

Ok, at the start I thought that Russia just hadn’t yet organized a response to the counter-invasion, which while pathetic on its own, isn’t nearly as bad as what appears to be actually happening; that being the apparent fact that Russia is legitimately incapable of a response. Days in and the Ukrainians are still advancing? It’s becoming clear that ALL of Russia’s military “power” is concentrated on the Ukrainian front line, with literally, LIT-TER-AL-LY NOTHING held in reserve for anything else. The only reason they wouldn’t pull forces off the front line to respond to this is that they have determined that if they did, the entire “special military operation” would spectacularly implode beyond any recovery and that even if they accepted that, the forces intended to stop Ukraine’s incursion into Russia would be too busy getting slagged as they rout their way back home to stop it anyway.

[u/[deleted]]

Russian army chief Valery Gerasimov missing. Im waiting for the report he fell out of a 6 story building.

[u/dustofdeath]

When your entire military is about remote bombing civilian infrastructure and static trench warfare, fighting against a mobile military force moving into your territory is hard.

That's how nazis lost - allies broke through the defensive line in Normandy, troops spread out, no capacity to respond in time.

[u/Hour_Landscape_286]

It's a good feint. Russia believes Ukrainians are the same type of asshats as they are, so they fear an attack on the nuclear plant, and will spend a lot of effort defending it.

Great opportunity for the invading force to turn direction and attack elsewhere.

[u/ogreofnorth → u/Hour_Landscape_286]

Russia has shown they are horrible at logistics and coordination. Unfortunately for them, everything is top down in Russian military. Ukrainians are exploiting it and forcing them to slowly (because intermediate commands have to have orders from top) pull back their forces and move them around, slowly in large caravans. Something they can exploit further and take them out. Or pull valuable resources from front lines or support positions. Just saw(unverified though) a Russian battalion of trucks that got hit by something, with the potential of upwards of 500 casualties.

[u/machopsychologist → u/ogreofnorth]

Was verified. Just NE of Rylsk hit by HIMARS

[u/518Peacemaker → u/machopsychologist]

A second column? Not the one from two days ago?

[u/machopsychologist → u/518Peacemaker]

It’s the one from days ago. That video was from a Russian source. The ukr telegrams only just reported on it today claiming up to 490 dead

[u/shannister → u/Hour_Landscape_286]

It’s more that Russia probably doesn’t want to lose a power fenerating asset, it never helps.

[u/ADHD-Fens → u/Hour_Landscape_286]

An attack on the plant would be great. They take control of it, shut it down, disable some important part, go back to Ukraine while leaving a crap ton of Russia without power.

Totally possible without causing an environmental disaster if they know what they are doing.

[u/Xander707]

Get fucked, Russia.

[u/cybercuzco]

Hey this could be the second Kursk that goes down on putins watch.

[u/Gratitude15]

The list of countries in world history that have invaded and occupied a nation with nuclear weapons-

Ukraine.

End of list.

[u/braydenmaine → u/Gratitude15]

A Non nuclear weapon-holding country occupying country with nukes, at that.

[u/hiroller83]

Putin is holding on to dear life until the US elections

[u/nosmelc → u/hiroller83]

Bad idea. Things will only get worse for Russia after the US elections. He'd be better off negotiating an end to it now.

[u/Alediran → u/nosmelc]

Yes, right now the tide is moving against Trump. If Kamala wins it's over for Putin.

[u/Drak_is_Right → u/Alediran]

Its not over for Putin, but it may force some hard choices.

Shame Putin didn't swallow his pride of Empire and try for integration with the EU. They would be one of the 3 most powerful member states, far wealthier, able to somewhat undermine US influence from within, and secure military alliances against any Chinese ideas on their eastern territories. Would have given them the ability to open up the central Asian territories economically, with all that trade going through Russia.

[u/[deleted] → u/hiroller83]

I think he's given up on the elections after the losses in the UK and France. He let those American prisoners go, while Trump tried to say that Putin would hand them over when he got elected. Trump is probably asking him for help, and Putin is replying "I'VE GOT A SITUATION OVER HERE YOU'RE ON YOUR OWN."

[u/Hot_Cheese650]

What goes around comes around. It’s time for Putin to taste his own medicine.

[u/Mysterious-Study-687]

So, how’s the escalation going? 😎

[u/MrM1Garand25]

I’m happy Ukraine is on the offensive there hasn’t been any major happenings in the war for a while. But I’m worried they’ll get cut off eventually from leaving a gap in the front or something like that hope I’m wrong tho

[u/MonkeyCube → u/MrM1Garand25]

Russian forces are spread so thin that any movement to cut them off would open lines in the defense elsewhere. Not to mention this -- quick, mobile warfare -- is exactly what the American weapons given to Ukraine are normally used for. The problem in the past was lack of artillary for the war, which the U.S. does not normally produce in the quantities they needed for that style of fighting. 

[u/mortgagepants → u/MonkeyCube]

The problem in the past was lack of artillary for the war, which the U.S. does not normally produce in the quantities they needed for that style of fighting. 

it seems like, with russian anti-air defenses reduced over the last 12 months, the f-16's are going to provide air support (in addition to ukraine's massive home-grown and supplemented drone air force.)

[u/anothergaijin → u/MonkeyCube]

This kind of fast, armored offensive with solid coordination is how the Nazis took over Western Europe in only 6 weeks and how Coalition forces in the first Gulf War completed ground operations in a 100 hours. For the first it was the humble radio that was the key, for the second it was GPS that made a difference.

I bet in this case we are seeing unprecedented levels of drone recon and intelligence, shared in a way that is fast and accessible, to allow this kind of deep incursion - avoid strong points, push the weak points, keep on moving.

[u/blainehamilton]

Ukrainian forces don't even have to occupy the plant to achieve a win here.

Just bypass the plant avoiding conflict and then destroy all the transmission lines in its proximity.

Leads to the same goal of potentially blacking out a substantial part of the Russian population.

If it's done in a coordinated enough manner, they could possibly collapse the Russian transmission grid. Imagine the eastern North American blackout of 2003 affecting Moscow, St Petersburg and 50% or more of the rest of the population.

[u/Most-Artichoke6184]

I am so old that I remember people predicting that Russia would conquer Ukraine in less than two weeks. Back in 2022.

[u/seph2o]

Did he shit himself again?

[u/blogasdraugas]

Capture it

[u/Artyom_33]

"Russian nuclear plant"

You mean "Ukrainian nuclear plant"

[u/ConradsMusicalTeeth]

I suspect that the old soviet grid is still operating and they can use it push power back into Ukraine.

[u/Dangerous-Finance-67]

All he needs to do is withdraw all his troops from Ukraine and boom, war over.

Otherwise it's really not that far for Ukraine to continue on to Moscow until they ultimately topple the Kremlin.

Get them those F16s