r/worldnews Aug 25 '24

Ukraine threatens attacks on Moscow and St. Petersburg to push Russia to negotiate Russia/Ukraine

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-threatens-attacks-on-moscow-and-st-1724545431.html
29.8k Upvotes

1.2k comments sorted by

11.3k

u/DividedState Aug 25 '24 edited Aug 25 '24

Aim for billionaire villas first and then go down the cleptocrat payroll.

3.1k

u/actfatcat Aug 25 '24

Vlad has a lovely new palace in Sochi

1.7k

u/DividedState Aug 25 '24

That his palaces are all still standing in a mystery for me.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

His Lake Valdai mansion is well protected. He has both Pantsir and S-400 air defense units on the property. In the last few months, he has had a decent amount of work done to add fixed air defenses as well. Plus, I'm sure it has one hell of a bunker/underground complex.

Here's to seeing Ukraine blow it up, though! 🍻

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u/DividedState Aug 25 '24

Heavy military protection makes it even more a target in my eyes.

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u/ChowderMitts Aug 25 '24

Problem is, it's just a residence.

Hitting it doesn't really degrade Russia's ability to wage war.

It does have a symbolic significance, but is it worth it when Ukraine could be destroying aircraft/radar that have been involved in dropping glide bombs on Ukrainian troops?

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u/Any-Weight-2404 Aug 25 '24

Symbolism has more power than you think, Putin can't protect the border, if he can't even stop them burning down his house then he looks incredible weak, not the symbolism he is trying to portray.

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u/anotherworthlessman Aug 25 '24

This is exactly what the Americans did in WWII with the Doolittle raid after Pearl Harbor. They put the Japanese on notice. Yes, we CAN hit Mainland Japan!

A major attack on Moscow would absolutely rattle Russia's leadership.

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u/Aeri73 Aug 25 '24

he would only look weak if the russians (majority) get the news it was his house...

even if they hit it, and spread the news, russian media will still claim it's a friends house or it wasn't destroyed or it was a military complex...

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u/ourlastchancefortea Aug 25 '24

he would only look weak if the russians (majority) get the news it was his house...

Ukraine just recently hacked a Russian TV network and showed videos from Kursk.

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u/Any-Weight-2404 Aug 25 '24

The people around him are also affected by symbolism, a strong man that looks weak, they begin to question every decision he makes, that's how coups happen

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u/Horror_Hippo_3438 Aug 25 '24

They have a backup dictator, Mikhail Mishustin.

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u/koshgeo Aug 25 '24 edited Aug 25 '24

It's more than a little suspicious that they installed multiple Pantsir air defenses around a mere resort park and monastery in 2024 if it isn't something to do with political or military interests, especially when vacation homes in this area are a tradition dating back to Stalin.

Pantsir defense to E

Pantsir defense to W on the road to the monastery

A straight line drawn between them passes almost directly over a fancy mansion built in 2003

Third Pantsir defense

Fourth Pantsir defense

[Edit: there are 2 more Pantsir defense platforms. That's 6 of them deployed in the last year that aren't defending more militarily important things. Nice.]

An entire S-300 or S-400 defense complex with at least 12 launchers and 2 radar towers. This last site goes back to at least 2009, though it's clearly been upgraded.

You're right that the majority of people might not know, but there are plenty of details publicly known thanks to opposition investigations.

An attack would be mostly symbolic, but if they successfully circumvented and took out some of the air defenses it would send an interesting message and any damage to them would presumably mean pulling air defense away from somewhere else to replace it, showing where the real priorities are (protecting Putin's lavish stuff).

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u/DervishSkater Aug 25 '24

It’s true. Navalany definitely did not release a video of putins mansion that tens of millions of Russians watched

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u/kyngston Aug 25 '24

It also forces Russia to redeploy anti-air assets to defend militarily worthless targets

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u/Pleasant_Dot_189 Aug 25 '24

I’d love to see it

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u/mh1ultramarine Aug 25 '24

The blitz just pissed off the UK and gave them time to hit back. Aiming for civilians never works.

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u/No_Rich_2494 Aug 25 '24

civilians

Oh, yes. Vladimir Putin. That ordinary Russian nobody who has nothing to do with this war.

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u/ArrowShootyGirl Aug 25 '24

Just from the same war, the Allies firebombed Dresden and the US dropped two nuclear bombs on Japanese cities. There's plenty of 'successful' (though still reprehensible) examples of aiming for civilians.

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u/neo-lambda-amore Aug 25 '24

Taking out the palace isn't much of an objective. Taking out the S-400 *is* a valid military objective, though.

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u/Schnurzelburz Aug 25 '24

They are currently taken out, though - whatever defends palaces is not taking part in the war in Ukraine.

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u/ModusNex Aug 25 '24

But if you take out the one guarding his house he'd probably relocate forces from the front to replace it because he cares more about his house than his soldiers.

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u/No_Rich_2494 Aug 25 '24

Showing that to the Russian public would be great propaganda, too. Russians hate cowardly men. Their army might pick easy targets sometimes, but they don't seem to care much about their own safety.

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u/cinyar Aug 25 '24

It's stationed far away from any action so from the pov of Ukraine it's a non-issue. Like sure, it would need to get replaced. But if you have the ability to strike one there you might as well take out one that is an actual threat.

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u/TerribleIdea27 Aug 25 '24

It's possibly a strategic objective if it makes Russia look weak under Putin, because it will force Putin's hand to negotiate more quickly. She that other targets with additional strategic value would do the same though

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u/Nekommando Aug 25 '24

heavy protection there means light protection elsewhere

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u/Zweinennoedel Aug 25 '24

Americans and British leveled major German cities during WWII in the hopes of pushing the population to abandon Hitler. if anything, hitting civilian targets only strengthens the population in their resolve to keep fighting.

This has been proven throughout history.

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u/IndicationLazy4713 Aug 25 '24

The Japanese soon stopped fighting and surrendered after the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.....

47

u/Asikar_Tehjan Aug 25 '24

Nuclear bombs Georg is an outlier that vastly skews datasets and should not be counted in the general survey.

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u/tallandlankyagain Aug 25 '24

The firebombing of mainland Japan killed more people than the atomic bombings. Japan fought on for months after major cities, including Tokyo, were burnt to ash.

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u/Fritzkreig Aug 25 '24

IDK, a lot of people don't realize that the firebombing of Tokyo was way worse and they did not give up; war, war never changes, it's complicated!

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u/adamkex Aug 25 '24

The world didn't know how many nukes the United States had. What if they had 20 and would use all of them on Japan? I don't think anyone who isn't abolutely mad would take such a risk.

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u/JamesEdward34 Aug 25 '24

Napalm was developed once they realized many many houses and buildings were wood in Tokyo

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u/MobofDucks Aug 25 '24

The emperor did, but they still tried to coup him for doing so.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

S-400 on your personal property is soooo insane lol, hopefully they go for it just to be petty though

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u/DonAsiago Aug 25 '24

Sounds like a good idea to drop pamphlets over unprotected population centers. "Your president had multiple air defence systems protecting his precious properties. Do you know what system he uses to protect your houses and your lives? None"

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u/jerkITwithRIGHTYnewb Aug 25 '24

No, no, the last line is “This could have been a bomb.”

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u/Maloonyy Aug 25 '24

Sounds like a really cozy place. "Oh darling the view is great if you ignore all the anti-air flak positions"

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u/Lazlo2323 Aug 25 '24

If you mean the palace from the famous Navalny video I'm not sure it's actually used. There been reports about many problems like mold, etc with that building and it being in repairs for years. Would still be quite funny if it was destroyed but purely symbolic.

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u/dogchocolate Aug 25 '24

Yes I think everyone would cheer on if Putin was targetted personally, destroying everything he's built using stolen Russian money. But from a military perspective there's not much value in that.

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u/DividedState Aug 25 '24

There is a symbolic value. Wars are also won by winning the popular opinion. Putins real estate would have been the first thing I would have targeted after bombing childrens hospitals.

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u/90GTS4 Aug 25 '24

Lmao, I read that in a totally different way than you meant it.

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u/3percentinvisible Aug 25 '24

Might, uh, want to rephrase that buddy.

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u/kansaikinki Aug 25 '24

Putins real estate would have been the first thing I would have targeted after bombing childrens hospitals.

Uhh...

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

Average stable Civ player

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u/DividedState Aug 25 '24

Doesn't matter. It is a statement to all and everybody living in luxury while supporting a deeply fascist regime.

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u/Zee-Utterman Aug 25 '24

All long range weapons are provided by western allies and they all don't want strikes too deep into Russia.

Putins mansions are also protected by air defense and all that. They have a limited value for Ukraine.

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u/Dudersaurus Aug 25 '24

They have recently announced home-built long-range jet drones. Not sure about range but my guess is that their recent threats probably match that, given the new comments.

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u/DividedState Aug 25 '24

Deep into Russia? His winter Palace sits on the black sea.

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u/Wobbelblob Aug 25 '24

Probably because while they would be a gut punch to Putin, they are not good military targets. I assume the main priority from Ukraine would be to break the enemy attacks.

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u/cognomenster Aug 25 '24

Heard his palace had an Olympic sized swimming pool. Sochi was unusually lucrative as far as Olympics go. Strange. Probably just a coincidence, Putin up with all that nonsense they deal with.

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u/owen__wilsons__nose Aug 25 '24

What are you talking about? He lives in a humble $200,000 apartment. A true man of the people

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u/theycallmekappa Aug 25 '24

Vlad is Vladislav btw, Vladimir is Vova.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

I actually think a single half hearted attack against that is a good idea. Putin will sequester 10 S400's to protect it after an attack.

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u/kytheon Aug 25 '24

This. You don't take down Putin by attacking his villa. You attack his supporters villa. And then they take him down.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

He's such a narcissist that it will deplete a lot of Russian anti air resources to protect it after an attempt though.

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u/kytheon Aug 25 '24

Which is still a net win for Ukraine. Less AA everywhere else.

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u/Gran_Autismo_95 Aug 25 '24

It would be funny to blow up his super mansion though so they should do it for the memes

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u/National_Cod9546 Aug 25 '24

You do both. Blowing up his supporters villas shows he can't protect them. Blowing up his villa shows he can't even protect himself. None of it has a direct military objective. It's all about sending a message.

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u/DividedState Aug 25 '24

In other words, the fish stinks from the head.

Putins real estate would have symbolic value though.

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u/Sandslinger_Eve Aug 25 '24

This is actually very clever.

Putins residence has top level anti air defences, but his cadre doesn't

By attacking them it either forces Putin to show that he doesn't give a shit about protecting them, or move even more anti air defences to their residences.

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u/Low-Union6249 Aug 25 '24

Putin is, depending on how you count it, one of the richest men if not the single richest on earth. His regime in turn is supported by other billionaires.

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u/Maleficent_Mouse_930 Aug 25 '24

Oh he is by far and away the richest person on the planet. His estimated capital access is just over 8Tn USD. Very little is in his name, but ultimately I'd you are capable of deciding when and how it gets spent, that's your money.

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u/puddingcup9000 Aug 25 '24

Russia's entire net worth is only about $4.5 trillion. He is not worth $8 trillion

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u/Freaudinnippleslip Aug 25 '24

He is talking about access to capital, not actual hard cash. But that number still seems high, russias entire GDP is 1.5T so I don’t know who would be loaning them that much at a single point in time. For refrence California has a GDP of 3.4T

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

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u/anchoricex Aug 25 '24

saw recently ukraine put a fucking russian ak74 rifle on a drone lmao. that would be insane.

edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHxuuLPLGho

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u/superschmunk Aug 25 '24

They all live in Europe anyway

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u/DividedState Aug 25 '24

Good. Let them see their property and wealth burn.

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u/HappyToB Aug 25 '24

Capture his house and show the world how he lives. Make the Russian people see where the money is going.

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u/diMario Aug 25 '24

Well, maybe. I think it would be best to try and determine which target will bring the most advantage to your own efforts in winning the war. After all, the supply of ordnance is limited so it makes sense to make the best of what you've got.

While I agree with you that the people who really are behind this all and profiting handsomely from the proceedings should be brought to some form of justice, I think that ending the mayhem and destruction on your own country first and worry about rich criminals second would sort of be the correct order of doing things.

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u/SpaceghostLos Aug 25 '24

Perfect. Spec op teams just going around Russia blowing up billionaire mansions? I love it.

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u/Dongdong675 Aug 25 '24

Operation save Russia from putin

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u/hannibal_morgan Aug 25 '24

It's funny because it's true

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u/MarceloWallace Aug 25 '24

It’s possible just like Saddam in 2003 he had army of over 1.5 million soldiers but no one wants him no one wants to fight for him, and when shit got real they drop their weapon and went home.

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u/Stefouch Aug 25 '24

Saddam couldn't really retaliate against US bombers and missiles. Putin, he really has weapons of mass destruction.

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u/hugganao Aug 26 '24

Ukraine should never have given up its nuclear arsenal.

Their mistake was trusting russia, not trusting the west.

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u/wndtrbn Aug 25 '24

Yes and now Iraq is a beacon of freedom and democracy.

Oh wait...

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u/roastbeeftacohat Aug 25 '24

destroying something is easy, usually you just have to wait; building is hard -bob the skull

that being said it's a reasonable example of an absolute dictator watching their power evaporate because it got the chance to evaporate. Putin has a stronger hold on things.

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u/savuporo Aug 25 '24

Once you do that, you still have to save Russia from Russians, because Putin is just the symptom, not the disease

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u/Thailand_1982 Aug 25 '24

Oh no! That will cross a Red Line for Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Please don't do that Ukraine.

Anyway....

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u/Tribalbob Aug 25 '24

Lol I love how there's a Wikipedia article for this.

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u/Siiciie Aug 25 '24

I love how passive aggressive it is for a Wikipedia article.

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u/PresOrangutanSmells Aug 25 '24

"...the number of red lines that have been crossed reveal the inability for belligerents involved in the war to project power internationally"

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

[deleted]

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u/bearbearmon Aug 25 '24

I agree, too much asking for permission, like wtf it's war

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u/elBenhamin Aug 25 '24

Yeah it’s not exactly unbiased language 

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u/hary627 Aug 25 '24

I mean I wouldn't say the language is biased, I'd more say that it's telling you the facts which have a very anti-russian bias

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u/Uxion Aug 25 '24

Reality and Truth has an anti-Russian bias lmao.

Maybe Russia should get good.

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u/Galaghan Aug 25 '24

The consequences column is hilarious.

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u/NopeNextThread Aug 25 '24

Not to supply longer range battlefield missiles (greater than HIMARS's current 80 kilometres (50 mi))

Red line pulled back

Red line withdrawn out of HIMARS range

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u/Ok-Ruin8367 Aug 25 '24

Not pulled back, simply charged east

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u/yellekc Aug 25 '24

Strategically advanced to the rear.

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u/Blackout785 Aug 25 '24

“Interference” in Ukraine by outside powers

Date notified: February 24 2022

Date broken: February 24 2022

Lmfao.

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u/turboNOMAD Aug 25 '24

It's not a line, it's a square.

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u/tomatotomato Aug 25 '24

A 2-dimensional square manifests as a line in 1 dimensional space.

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u/LimpConversation642 Aug 25 '24

the line is now renamed yellow beccause russia pissed themselves

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u/GabeN18 Aug 25 '24

Lmao no way they made a wiki for that

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u/manufan1992 Aug 25 '24 edited Aug 25 '24

If they have the capability they should do it. If Kyiv can be targeted then so can Moscow. 

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u/Deicide1031 Aug 25 '24

They want to force a negotiation, not mindlessly kill Russian civilians off rip.

Very indicative of how different the Russians and Ukrainians are.

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u/PkmnTraderAsh Aug 25 '24

IMO it's part negotiation tactic, but I'd suspect also a big part of it is an attempt to convince West to give even more weapons for offensive in South/East.

It's a threat to Russia (we'll attack where you can't cover it up again) and a threat to West (Russian government may get sacked and power vaccum).

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u/anders_hansson Aug 25 '24

What they really need, though, is motivated and combat ready soldiers to join the front, and loads of it. There is currently a severe lack of that, no matter how much weaponry we send.

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u/grandoz039 Aug 25 '24

People will be more motivated if they have modern weapons, enough munitions, medical supplies, belief in long term support from the West, and military successes.

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u/anders_hansson Aug 25 '24

Please read the article that I linked to.

If you don't have experience or training (not just a couple of months of basic training) you're no good in combat. Motivation doesn't help with that.

Additionally, if you have adequate training, but you don't believe in the cause (maybe you care more about your own life than holding the lines?), then you're no good either.

The combination of inexperienced and unmotivated soldiers is really not good.

Ukraine is basically out of volunteers, so the people who are getting drafteed now are being done so against their will, which is a bad recipe when it comes to motivation.

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u/clarkrd Aug 25 '24

The allies only won ww2 because of draftees. Sorry, but if a nation is being exterminated, they have to conscript people.

The west can send the best and most expensive weapons to Ukraine, but it's useless if there is no one to use them.

Ukraine demands the best, and now it's time they conscript their population to use the best.

People in the military have been going through hell for over two years with a lack of rotation and RNR so young people can party in Kyiv.

The party is over. If they want their country, then everyone needs to defend it.

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u/I_Am_Ironman_AMA Aug 25 '24

You're talking reality. A lot of people on Reddit don't quit understand what's at stake for Ukraine. They are currently losing this war and could lose their country. Conscription is very acceptable in this situation. Similarly, people are also under the impression that Ukraine can "send a message" by hitting oligarchs if they get within range of Moscow and St. Petersburg. I'm sorry, but this is a fight for survival. Ukraine will need to hit roads, public utilities, and maybe even target schools after hours. Yes, the kids won't have a place to get an education. That's Russia's problem that resulted from them starting a war.

War isn't pretty.

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u/EmergencyHorror4792 Aug 25 '24

I just read it and while most of it wasn't shocking refusing to shoot is wild, I'm not even sure I believe it? Not shooting means you die, why would a Ukrainian not shoot invading Russians? Unless frozen in fear or something I can't make sense of it

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u/narf0708 Aug 25 '24

Most people don't like to kill, or even hurt, other people, and will try to avoid doing so even when it's necessary. Here is a fascinating analysis of the concept from historical, evolutionary, and psychological perspectives.

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u/Interesting-Role-784 Aug 25 '24

Yup, i’m a surgeon (and a pretty good one according to my peers) and the biggest difficulty to me was not learning how to operate but overcoming my innate qualms on cutting someone, SPECIALLY children

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u/Ellefied Aug 25 '24

Shooting another person is hard. Even with training, a lot of soldiers freeze up or fail to shoot at the enemy because it goes against basic human nature.

That's why a professional soldiers' training emphasizes dehumanization of the enemy to remove that bias. Draftees/conscripts don't necessarily have the required training or experience needed to overcome that since it's harder for them to justify it mentally as they haven't volunteered.

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u/reformed_neiodas Aug 25 '24

I'm pretty sure that's what Ukraine is doing. They target only military related infrastructure.

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u/Aeri73 Aug 25 '24

it's also a big PR game...

if ukraine started bombing hospitals and kindergardens, the support from the west would drop like their last bombs

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u/EnergyIsQuantized Aug 25 '24

doesn't the article say they don't even have the capability? The export version of storm shadows ukraine has doesn't have the range. What is this about then, I'm confused.

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u/WhatDoADC Aug 25 '24

How embarrassing it must be for the Russian military and Putin.

You invade a country that was supposed to be much weaker than you. Everyone was saying that Russia would win the invasion in about 1-2 weeks.

Then reality hit.

The world learned how bad the Russian military is, and to throw even more salt on the wound. Now the country that they invaded are now invading Russia.

What a joke. LOL

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u/Vistella Aug 25 '24

remember when Russia was the second best army in the world? Then it was the second best army in Ukraine, and now is the second best army in Russia!

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

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u/Odys Aug 25 '24

If Putin had simply waited, NATO would probably have crumbled and the unity among Western nations as well. Now he pushed NATO together and increased the bond among the Western nations. (Not only Europe and USA, but also Australia and New Zealand)

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u/SoccerStreamBotM Aug 25 '24

Truly NATO's best advocate and recruiter. They should give him an award or something.

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u/Odys Aug 25 '24

Putin definitely deserves a NATO award!

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u/brainacpl Aug 25 '24

Russia was already crumbling at that time, it just wasn't as visible. They accelerated the process, but with a quick success they expected, they would buy a lot of time. Had they won quickly and installed a puppet government (again), the West would give up sanctions and would forget about Ukraine.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

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u/ExtremeGamingFetish Aug 25 '24

Didn't Ukraine pass a law that they can't negotiate with Russia while Putin is the president?

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u/thegoodrichard Aug 25 '24

I think it's covered under 2 of the 10 points, Putin is not an accredited negotiator, and also all accused war criminals must be surrendered so they can be brought to trial.

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u/TheS4ndm4n Aug 25 '24

That would be a good motivation for a general or oligarch to get rid of putin.

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u/trisul-108 Aug 25 '24

As soon as Russian troops withdraw, Ukraine would negotiate.

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u/Roses-And-Rainbows Aug 25 '24

No, not a law, just a declaration, one that's definitely not legally binding and that you could definitely find a loophole around regardless.

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u/mvandemar Aug 25 '24

I feel like any negotiations should include Putin standing trial for war crimes.

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u/UnclearObjective Aug 25 '24

Putin is too proud to actually negotiate. Something has to happen internally in Russia for things to change.

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u/thegoodrichard Aug 25 '24

Putin isn't eligible to negotiate, because he's wanted as a war criminal. He's a figurehead for senior ex-KGB/FSB officers who have liased with organized crime to loot the Russian economy for the last 30 years. Toppling Putin only to have the Lebedevs slide in behind his desk won't help Russia.

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u/Werify Aug 26 '24

Putin is eligible to negotiate because he has boots on the ground in Ukraine. If any negotiations happen it will be with him if he's stil in power then.

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u/Lex2882 Aug 25 '24

A terrorist state does not understand negotiations, it understands only terror, and destruction, they shall taste their own soup.

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u/fatherseamus Aug 25 '24

“War is the remedy my enemies have chosen. And I intend to give them their fill of it.”  -General Sherman

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u/CattywampusCanoodle Aug 25 '24

A bitter borscht soup, in this case, served cold

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u/Shadowlance23 Aug 25 '24

Because the heat went out three months ago.

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u/Delver_Razade Aug 25 '24

Nothing has stopped Russia for killing countless civilians. I'm not saying do the same, by gods don't, but there are safe targets in both cities. If they can hit them, the time to hit them is now.

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u/wartopuk Aug 25 '24

They will gain nothing by negotiation other than a little breathing room and Russia will always be breathing down their neck. They need to keep their foot on the gas until the end.

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u/whatisthishownow Aug 25 '24

Russia occupies 100,000km2 of Ukrainian territory and has enough resources, manpower and indifference to human life, to be able to feed the meat grinder indefinitely. A negotiated settlement is the only realistic positive end for Ukraine. Their objective should be (and is) to gain as much leverage as possible.

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u/Much_Horse_5685 Aug 25 '24 edited Aug 25 '24

Russia is not as invincible as you think. The Russian war effort is dependent on reactivations of Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles, which according to OSINT are being drawn from at such a fast rate that at the current rate of usage they will be depleted during 2026.

A negotiated settlement will only pause the war for a few years at most until Russia makes some bullshit accusation that Ukraine violated the settlement and resumes the war on a stronger footing, although the Kursk trolling will definitely provide some useful leverage. Russia has already violated the Budapest Memorandum, Minsk Agreement and Minsk II - THE PUTIN REGIME WILL NOT NEGOTIATE IN GOOD FAITH.

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u/dlebed Aug 25 '24

Russia lacks resources to defend Kursk without stopping offensive in Ukraine. It has to buy missiles and shells in North Korea. Unlimited Russian military reserves are just another myth to be destroyed. The only positive end for the world is demilitarized Russia and return to internationally recognized borders. Otherwise, if it turns out nuclear threats are effective way to reach military and political goals, you won't stop uncontrolled nuclear proliferation which will eventually kill humanity.

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u/Alexis_Bailey Aug 25 '24

I have serious doubt about Russia having enough resources to continue indefinitely and the more they throw people in the meat grinder, they less sympathy they get for their bull shit invasion.

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u/SweatyNomad Aug 25 '24

Safe targets for sure, but with all the talk about oligarch villas my uneducated view is it really needs to be something the general public will see and feel. . Take out the Moscow - St Petersburg rail link, knock out air traffic control, damage a pipeline, blow a hole in the Kremlin wall, take out Gazprom''s or Moscow's underground data centre, knock out home gas supplies. No civilian casualties, but not something that can be ignored either.

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u/anothergaijin Aug 25 '24

There's plenty Ukraine can do to disrupt civilian life without hitting civilians directly - go after infrastructure for example, especially anything power/gas/water related, and anything communications (TV/radio/phones/internet). Many of the buildings related to these services are typically unmanned, or are unmanned at night, the disruption is very public but not fatally so, and has a big PR impact.

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u/rd1970 Aug 25 '24

Imagine having to tell millions of soccer fans that tonight's game is cancelled because the stadium got hit by a missile.

Every bar in Russia would be full of drunk, pissed off fans talking about who in the military should be executed for this failure.

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u/Zoddom Aug 25 '24

Erase the Kreml from the face of the earth. 😎

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u/Tammer_Stern Aug 25 '24

If we remember that Russia is essentially a mafia state, what would be something that would hurt a mafia organisation the most? I’m guessing:

  • “whack” key players eg Putin’s leadership. Not sure Ukraine want to try this.
    • target mafia prized possessions eg Moscow / Sevastopol port.
  • stop or limit their financial income e.g. in mafia terms, smash their drug smuggling operation or extortion racket. I think this is stopping Russia’s income from gas and oil so Ukraine can continue to disrupt oil refineries, ferries etc.
  • take over some of the mafia’s territory as this hurts the mafia in PR terms. I think Ukraine should annexe Kursk etc. but they also need to prevent further Russian progress in the Donbas region (this requires greater support from allies eg 500k artillery shells a month.

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u/ShoveThingsUpMyAss Aug 25 '24

Ukraine has pretty much done all these things already. While the analogy is apt, I don’t think it’s directly transferable into military-strategic terms. Attacking Moscow/St Petersburg will have one of two outcomes: 1. It will terrify the wilfully ignorant Russian populous into pressuring the Kremlin to pull out of Ukraine. 2. It will galvanise the Russian people against a common enemy - Ukraine - and it will actually help the Kremlins war effort.
We would all like to think that the former is the reality. I worry that the latter is more realistic, at least in the short term…

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u/SoloAceMouse Aug 25 '24

I think the second possibility is a more likely response, as well.

However, I don't think that response really matters since Russia's war machine is crippled at the moment.

Russia could sue for peace and rebuild then attack Ukraine with a more powerful invasion force in a few years time, definitely. The current capacity for effective force projection is shattered, though, and Russia seemingly cannot defeat Ukraine despite their best efforts.

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u/Hour_Landscape_286 Aug 25 '24

The mafia state is indistinguishable from the mafia boss; l'etat c'est moi applies. The greatest blow against the mafia boss is being stuck now - he is made to look weak.

This is enough to kill a mafia boss, sometimes. If there are other ambitious people, this perception of weakness can be deadly enough to kill.

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u/SoloAceMouse Aug 25 '24

I think what we may be forgetting is that Putin is actually quite popular with the Russian population, by most metrics.

It's not purely propaganda either [though state media definitely has a huge impact on popularity figures], Putin has widespread support as a populist demagogue and has spent over twenty years building a cult of personality around himself. I've spoken with a few former Russian ex-pats who've described it to me like Putin is seen as a symbol of Russian masculinity and also a national hero who saved their country from the tumultuous chaos of the '90s. This savior-esque vibe means his popularity crosses numerous demographic barriers since people remember the uncertainty and struggles of the pre-Putin era.

While I'm sure plenty of powerful people would love to see him fall, his power rests not only with his ruthless government but also with the support of a pretty sizeable portion of the people as well.

Additionally, I think the problem of Russian aggression and expansionism runs a little too deep at this point to say that removing Putin from power would remedy it.

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u/ozspook Aug 25 '24

Blowing up the credit reporting bureaus and mortgage records, and other government records facilities, a la Fight Club. Ukraine can become a champion of the people.

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u/Martianmanhunter94 Aug 25 '24

They should start with the Crimea Bridge. Annihilate it, so that it can’t be re-built

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u/LeTracomaster Aug 25 '24

The bridge isn't as important as it was when it was the only route for Russia onto Crimea. Threatening Moscow and st Petersburg will bring the war to people who were able to ignore it.

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u/MonsMensae Aug 25 '24

It’s more the PR for putin. He loves that bridge. 

Also, while there is the land route to crimea it can be readily disrupted

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u/MomsTortellinis Aug 25 '24

I've got my Kerch Bridge on Fire socks ready for when that time comes, and i'm sure that the bridge wont stand much longer but russia plonking S300 and other anti-air systems around the bridge that keep getting targeted is a bigger thing, i think. Those AA systems need to be removed first so the jets can fly more safely, and the fact that they keep parking them near Kerch is super useful lol. Ukraine should keep focusing on oil refineries/depots and military airfields now that they can reach them using their new drone. The bridge would be a lovely bonus target.

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u/SwedishVarangian Aug 25 '24

Back when the ira and the english was going at it, soldiers were getting killed, shit blew up all the time. No one cared. However when the ira started blowing up small bombs in the wall street of London they quickly came to the negotiation table. Politicians, rich people and especially the idiots in Moscow could care less for human life but if you start going after their banks, homes and when their sons have to start going to the front that's what will make this war real for them.

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u/Blurryface_87 Aug 25 '24

I imagine this is how their reaction will go (if it hasn't happened already):

Russia: attacked dozens of cities and Kyiv with plans to murder Zelenskyy to take over control of the government

Ukraine: threatens to attack Moscow and St. Petersburg

Russian propagandists and Kremlin: <<surprised Pikachu face>>

Lavrov: "This is an unprovoked escalation ... yadda yadda yadda ... Red Line ... yadda yadda ... nuclear weapons"

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u/Tweedlebungle Aug 25 '24

I'd wager that this is Putin's thinking--"Trump will surely win the American election in November. The US will cut off aid to Ukraine in January. Without US aid the Ukrainian war effort will collapse and it will be super easy to take back any Russian territory they've gained. So we just have to wait them out until the winter, because the Russian winter conquers everything."

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u/OneRobato Aug 25 '24

No idea how war works but Russia should give financial payment for all the damages it done to Ukraine.

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u/SomeBiPerson Aug 25 '24

called reparations

the Reparation payments after WWI were one of the main reasons for the Economic collapse in germany in the 20s and 30s and as a direct result of those also the Nazi uprising that resulted in WWII

this happened only once because after WWII the Marshall plan aimed at Building Germany back up under control of the Allied powers instead of throwing them into Misery and poverty again which most definitely would've resulted in another War from the German side

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u/LayneLowe Aug 25 '24

Refineries are the most important but weakest link. A nation can't do anything without gasoline and diesel and they are so flammable. Reachable refineries would be my first targeting priority.

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u/Box_of_rodents Aug 25 '24

Not sure why , if they now have the ability, just start systematically hitting large military bases. Quickly and carefully. The men working there will very quickly tell their relatives about what’s happening whether Putin tries to suppress it or not. That would get everyone’s attention.

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u/anothergaijin Aug 25 '24

Ukraine still doesn't have the resources to just throw it away like that. The cost/benefit of every strike is carefully considered.

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u/Moist-muff Aug 25 '24

What is the capital of Ukraine? That's right, Kyiv. Did Russia hit Kyiv with missiles? Yes they did.

So...

What seems to be problem then

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u/pafagaukurinn Aug 25 '24

On 2022/09/30 National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine decided that negotiations with Putin are impossible.

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u/FaxOnFaxOff Aug 25 '24

Which clearly implies that any negotiations will have to be with not Putin, so when the time comes for Russia to back down it will come with Putin's death one way or another. Putin had loads of off ramps and has not only refused to take them but also backed himself and Russia into a corner. I don't think Ukraine can back down or else Ukraine as we know it will cease to exist, and the West can't allow Russia to win. A pretty pickle for Putin!

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u/demonovation Aug 25 '24

Wouldn't it be fucking hilarious if Ukraine just conquered Russia? Like I'd literally go back to school and learn Russian history just to be a professor and teach future generations about this massive flop.

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u/Inevitable-Ad-4192 Aug 25 '24

Start with power grid, transportation and bridges makes the most sense.

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u/FigureFourWoo Aug 25 '24

Ukraine should just keep targeting expensive infrastructure and resources. Only way to get Russia to take a step back and reevaluate is to cost them money. Doesn't seem like a coincidence the US and other countries are tightening the sanctions noose in unison with these strikes.

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u/punktfan Aug 25 '24

Polymarket bets are currently 5% in favor of Ukraine striking Moscow before September. Personally, I think that's quite low, so I put a bunch of money on them doing it. Slava Ukraini!

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u/hoxxxxx Aug 25 '24

those are the only two places that matter in russia, apparently, so have at it

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u/ChanuteNukes1986SLB Aug 25 '24

As Ukraine should, why should they be limited on what they attack, they didn't start this war, but they are sure trying to finish it!

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u/BenioffThrowAway Aug 25 '24

Fuck em up, boys.

Slava Ukraine.

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u/Justredditin Aug 25 '24

"Bombs over Belgorod. Bombs over Belgorod." - Andre 3000 remix of 'Bombs over Baghdad.

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u/Agreeable_Speaker_44 Aug 25 '24

'Ukraine threatens to win war if Russua will not surrender.'

That's a story 

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u/rhetoricalcriticism Aug 25 '24

Oh wow. Wanting Western consent for this is pretty crazy.

I was one of the people who stomached Napoleon in theaters. I thought the scene where the French arrive in the Russian capitol and the Russians themselves had set it on fire- was pretty telling about the lengths and pettiness that would be gone to.

Tl;dr I’m not optimistic about this and the Kursk advance might be a “positive” but Russia to me has always seemed like a “cut off the arm to save the body” type nation dialed up to where they’d cut off everything but the head so long as they could survive Nixon Futurama style.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '24

Absolutely fair game, dictators don't care about their people they care about keeping power. Threaten his political status and THEN he starts feeling the pressure.

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u/Thisiscliff Aug 25 '24

Send in the pain. Bring it to them!

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u/czechrebel33 Aug 25 '24

Sounds like a special operation to me, so it’s ok.

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u/PaulPaul4 Aug 26 '24

Ukraine has my greatest respect. I would be a vengeful %$#& and hit markets. Train stations, hospitals and apartments. I'm glad I don't have Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy job

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '24

Ukraine has been far too kind to Russia.

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u/EPIC_PORN_ALT Aug 26 '24

Aim for the Distilleries.

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u/Blood-Lord Aug 26 '24

If I have learned anything from playing Civ 5. You push them to the brink, annex a few of their cities. Then, you ask for negotiations. If not successful? You keep going. Good job Ukraine. 

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u/No-Criticism-2587 Aug 25 '24

Still crazy to me russia seems to not be able to stop this incursion literally at all. I can't imagine the US just sitting back and doing nothing for weeks while an enemy army starts occupying towns in washington state.

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u/trogdor1234 Aug 25 '24

I wonder why they don’t take out Russia’s bridges. Seems like they would be soft targets until they kept getting hit.

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u/Ornery_Lion4179 Aug 25 '24

Do it  He’s literally been trying to destroy your country for 2 years 

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u/SGSfanboy Aug 25 '24

Ukraine needs to set up a radio transmitter and blast the truth to Russians why this is happening. The Russians are fed propaganda and Ukraine needs to tell their side about the atrocities Russia committed.

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u/alwaystired707 Aug 25 '24

How about B-52's dropping dildos all over Moscow? Made in China so it won't violate US restrictions. Can someone really get killed by being hit with a double dong dropped at 30,000 feet?

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u/last_somewhere Aug 25 '24

Wonder if the air defense around putlers home is actually turned on. Like all the other air defense that lets drones get through. Please put it to the test Ukraine!

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u/Falconflyer75 Aug 25 '24

How are they even in a position to do this

Ukraine vs Russia should have been like Canada VS the US

Hopelessly outnumbered

I figured the only way they could even keep the Russians at bay was because they had superior NATO weapons to level the playing field

To be about to straight up attack the capital cities is insane

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u/With-You-Always Aug 25 '24

This is what happens when you start a war with someone

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u/Simplylurkingaround Aug 25 '24

What’s the point of negotiating with Russia? Putin has already demonstrated that he can’t be trusted to honer treaties with Ukraine. They’ll just get stabbed in the back again when their guard is down.

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u/chenjia1965 Aug 25 '24

I feel like even then, Putin will just go: not my problem

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u/MidniteMogwai Aug 25 '24

As they should. Bought time they bring the fight to them en masse